Why Going Pro in Tennis is Much, Much Harder than You Think

Going pro in tennis is not just harder than what most people assume, it is impossibly hard. This is for two main reasons. The first is that the current institution of pro tennis allows fewer than 200 men and 200 women to make a living from competition, and the other is that physical talent is a very small and simple piece of a very large and complex puzzle.

On the former point, tennis happens to be a very inequitable sport. While the rankings in tennis go up about 2000 spots, more than 1800 of those “professional” players lose money chasing their dreams. Playing on the pro tour means a player must pay for travel, coaching, physical training, physio treatments, and other expenses. While sponsors may take care of some of these needs, lower ranked players are mostly paying out of pocket. Meanwhile, players in the top 50 rake in a disproportionate amount of the available prize money while players up to 200 in the world are making a modest living or working hard to break even. This is because challengers and futures level events (the minor leagues of pro tennis) generate a small amount of revenue compared to the main tour.

Comparing tennis to other global sports, 200 tennis players is about the same as the number of NBA players that compete in the playoffs each year. Compared to professional soccer, 200 players represents 1/4th of the number of players who play for a Champion’s League team in Europe. In practical terms, 100 players per generation can make the top flight and then stay there long enough to have a “successful career.” These players are the 1% of the 1% of the 1%.

One critical item to note is that 2000 in the world is still incredibly good. Players in this range will have a Universal Tennis Rating around 13 - higher than the majority of players currently playing Division 1 college tennis. What separates these players from higher ranks is hard to define, but it’s some combination of mentality, support, and luck.

Obviously, pro players possess a lot of physical talent. To make it, they had to be 99th percentile for kinesthetic intelligence (i.e. the ability to replicate good technique) and eye-hand coordination. They are also supremely durable and dynamic athletes with a special blend of the right genetics (tall and slender usually). But these physical talents are simple prerequisites that hardly determine anything, and there are many reasons why.

The main reason is tennis itself is sport of small margins. When everyone is good, the margins of victory are very small because virtually all top players hold serve regularly and have other great shots too. As a result, the outcomes of matches often boil down to one or two breaks of serve, which means that a small number of consequential points separates the winner from the loser. In those moments, there are variables that are difficult to control. If anything separates players at the higher levels, it’s that better players are better winners; they can usually manage the stresses of the match and handle the pressure of the moment better than their opponent.

Indeed, a lack of mental talent is a significant reason why some physically talented players never materialize. Tennis is a very lonely sport where players must constantly deal with failure and pressure. In pro tennis, players have the added stresses of playing for their livelihood in a foreign country far from the comforts of home. To succeed, players need mental toughness that most average people cannot imagine.

Attaining that type of mentality requires a colossal effort from coaches, parents, physical trainers, psychologists, and the players themselves. And that means a lot of money, practice, and time. Developing a high level player is a complex equation where many variables have to come together. Besides a lack of money, common reasons that a talented player may never manifest include: bad coaching, parenting issues (either unsupportive or overly zealous), a lack of quality competition, and a lack of training resources.With so many variables, nothing is guaranteed.

Then there’s the pesky problem of luck. Tennis pros can, and often do, get injured before they find success. Others may have bad luck standing in their way. For instance, many players work hard to make the main draw of a major tournament. Drawing a top-10 opponent, they crash out in the first round and disappear into irrelevance. The wrong opponent on the wrong day can completely alter a pro’s career trajectory. Obviously, someone has to make the cut, but the fact that any one player makes the pros is astonishing.